Category: TRANSACTIONS

  • GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: Cross-border M&A outlook 2019

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: Cross-border M&A outlook 2019

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS:
    Cross-border M&A outlook 2019

    In the first half of 2019 (H1 2019), global merger and acquisition (M&A) value reached US$ 1.86 trillion, increasing 21% from H2 2018 (US$ 1.5 trillion). Although this was 8% less than the H1 2018 (US$ 2 trillion in announced deals), it was the second-highest half year on record.
    Likewise, while M&A volumes have slowed – declining 12% from H1 and H2 2019 to some of the lowest levels since 2015 – viewed within the historical context, dealmaking remains robust and it could continue to be so into the year ahead.
    To take the pulse of the current M&A market and get a sense of executive and investor intentions for 2019 and the year ahead, Baker Tilly International conducted research with Mergermarket to interview 150 dealmakers from across the globe. Some of the key findings include:
    54%
    54% predict an increase in M&A activity in 2020
    71%
    71% expect to increase their cross-border M&A spend in 2020 despite heightened geopolitical risks, rising protectionism and whispers of a recession
    35%
    35% feel cross-border deals are risks worth taking
    67%
    The middle-market is expected to account for 67% of deal volume in 2020
    The U.S. is the top market where dealmakers will invest in the next 1-2 years
    The full report explores current trends and challenges shaping the global market for M&A, while also exploring opportunity areas where dealmakers are likely to find value in the year ahead, including key growth markets and hot sectors. All of this is in an effort to provide a roadmap and practical insights for dealmakers to consider into 2020 and beyond.
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  • GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: North American M&A market update 2020

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: North American M&A market update 2020

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS:
    North American M&A market update 2020

    The first six months of 2020 were marked by a pandemic and fears of a recession. As a result, dealmaker confidence in the North American market was shaken and the remainder of the year may not be much brighter.
    The COVID-19 resurgence, trade wars, social and economic unrest, lockdowns, and an upcoming presidential election have contributed to a downturn in mergers and acquisitions dealmaking, according to the most recent research conducted by Baker Tilly International and Mergermarket. After interviewing 150 dealmakers from across the world, some of the key findings were:
    To take the pulse of the current M&A market and get a sense of executive and investor intentions for 2019 and the year ahead, Baker Tilly International conducted research with Mergermarket to interview 150 dealmakers from across the globe. Some of the key findings include:
    55%
    55% of dealmakers say they will decrease investments into North America in the year ahead
    87%
    87% say the recent spread of COVID-19 is having a negative impact on their investment decisions
    50%

    50% say they will not consider cross-border M&A until the pandemic abates 

    48%

    48% say the level of private equity activity will increase over next 12 months 

    47%
    47% say the upcoming US elections in November will have a negative impact on M&A, while 30% say it will have no impact at all
    83%

    83% say distress-drive M&A will be the top deal driver in the year ahead

    This latest issue of the ‘Global Dealmakers: Crossborder M&A outlook’ series explores current trends and challenges shaping the North American M&A, while also exploring opportunity areas where dealmakers are likely to find value in the year ahead.
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  • Why Corporate Travel Must Have a Future

    Why Corporate Travel Must Have a Future

    Why Corporate Travel Must Have a Future

    Corporate travel has been hard hit by the pandemic, with huge commercial implications for airlines, as well as event organizers, trade shows and the hospitality sector. What does the future hold for business travel?

    The business travel sector had never looked so rosy at the end of 2019.

    The Global Business Travel Association estimated work travel spending was rude with health, with a spend of US$ 1.4 trillion capping out its best year ever. There were more than 400 million business trips in the United States alone.

    The focus at the start of 2020 was continuing to develop an ever more personalized service and the business-leisure (bleisure) trend, adding vacation time to business trips, was gaining more traction, particularly among the younger business cohort.

    In 2019, a car rental company reported that as many as 90% of millennial business travelers were now adding leisure components to their trips.

    There was no reason to think the industry wouldn’t power on. But COVID-19 wasn’t in anyone’s reckoning.

    Red numbers flowed from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). The most recent data shows air travel, measured in revenue passenger kilometers, has declined 67.2% in March 2021, compared to March 2019.

    That data includes domestic travel – which has all but returned to pre-COVID levels in places such as China and Russia – but when international travel is isolated, the devastation that the pandemic has wreaked is laid bare – a fall of 87.8%.

    Passenger traffic between countries is down 94.8% among Asia Pacific airlines compared with March 2019, while European carriers are faring little better with an 88.3% decline.

    The loss of spending on business airfares, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment amounts to more than $2 trillion globally in 2020. Business travelers are just 12% of airline passengers, but they account for as much as 75% of profits.

    But while airlines are keen to get moving again, confidence from employees and employers to step on a plane may be slower to follow. Can business continue to be done without face-to-face meetings?

    Confidence the key ingredient

    International travel is starting to inch forward as vaccines are rolled out. The US has formed working groups with Canada, Mexico, the European Union, and the United Kingdom to restart travel, while authorities have eased travel recommendations for more than 110 countries.

    The EU itself is establishing vaccine passports for travel within the bloc, while the UK has a green list of quarantine-free travel destinations, and Australia, Singapore and South Korea are establishing travel bubbles.

    Travel options becoming available is the first step but there remains a reluctance by employers to allow business flights, as well as among individuals to board a plane.

    Confidence-the-key-ingredient

    This hesitancy was evident in Jordan, which shut down international travel for few months in 2020 except by special exemption to return citizens to their countries. Jordan has clearly suffered from the pandemic, with about 772,000 cases among the 10 million population, and 10,000 deaths.

    Sharhabeel Mansour, Partner with Baker Tilly in Jordan, says Jordan’s strategy has not worked well to keep the virus under control and the appetite for the risks associated with travel has returned as people are not able to handle the lockdown and restrictions.

    Why doing business remotely cannot last?

    Many businesses have survived without travel, with millions of people taking up video conferencing platforms such as Zoom and Microsoft Teams to stay in touch with clients and get deals done.

    While acknowledging that businesses did what needed to be done, relying solely on remote meetings and digital collaboration won’t last. Clients continue to want physical interactions and not many are able to continue communicating digitally alone. The Baker Tilly in Jordan teams and our clients, whatever industry they are in, are mostly working from home and from a Jordanian and cultural perspective, this doesn’t work too well. You lose a lot of that human touch and communication. “We started to notice many of our clients in Jordan and regionally are starting to move back to physical meetings.” Sharhabeel Mansour, Partner in Baker Tilly Jordan said.

    COVID-19 is not going away, and people must find a way to regain that human touch, where they can lead teams, and where clients can go meet. Business people are finding that human touch cannot be replaced with digital platforms for the longer time as it is difficult to build long lasting relationships without being there in person.

    The pandemic has delivered a realization that not all the travel being done was necessary but that does not mean it will all dry up. There have been some things that we thought we had to travel for, and meet somebody face to face, but we have been able to achieve results without being there in person

    Why-doing-business-remotely-cannot-last
    Online conferences lack value

    The conference and events industry did its best to push through in the absence of travel, investing in platforms for virtual gatherings to bring experts and networks together.

    While associated industries such as hotels and airlines were unable to benefit – corporate travel accounts for about 70 percent of revenue for major hotel chains – the virtual conference thrived, with some online conference companies seeing growth of up to 1,000%.

    Among participants, people were able to attend more events than prior to the pandemic, increasing the reach of organizers, and virtual events have gathered overwhelming support, meaning they are likely to continue for the foreseeable future.

    Many of the training firms moved client workshops and strategy sessions online over the last 12 months, but those firms are starting to recognize that the human element now missing was perhaps the most important component of the event. No matter whether you are using breakout rooms, online whiteboards, there’s so many applications and tools, but it is just not the same. People have got to come back together. Whether we are networking so that people can form new business relationships or whether they are trying to service our clients and give them value for what they are paying, it’s got to come back.

  • GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: Fast Growth Companies 2021

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: Fast Growth Companies 2021

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS
    Fast Growth Companies 2021

    Our latest Dealmakers 2021 report talks digital transformation.
    The recipe for fast-growing companies has long relied on a mix of ingredients — geographic expansion, for example, coupled with operational improvements and new management. But for investors and dealmakers looking to spur companies on to growth in the rocky recovery from COVID-19, there’s one ingredient that matters more than all others: digital transformation. That’s the finding of Baker Tilly’s latest Dealmakers 2021 report, Scale and speed: Fast-growing companies defy their limits, which looks at the drivers for private equity investors in their choice of companies expected to grow.

    The report finds that after a year in which traditional markets and business models were tested like never before, the value of digital transformation has become clear. Read the full report.

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  • Uncertainty bites: M&A market update

    Uncertainty bites: M&A market update

    UNCERTAINTY BITES
    M&A market update

    The past year was one for the record books as deals hit highest value in over a decade, but global tensions could put the handbrake on confidence.

    The escalating war in Ukraine and the fallout across European nations and economies threatens to take the steam out of the M&A market, according to Baker Tilly experts, even as a new report shows the strong momentum of dealmaking in 2021.

    Baker Tilly’s annual M&A market update, produced in conjunction with M&A intelligence firm, Mergermarket, revealed a remarkable 77 percent increase in the annual global cross-border deal value last year, as dealmakers seemed to show better resilience in the face of uncertainty and change.

    More than half of the respondents (53 percent) in the annual outlook expected mid-market deals would drive global M&A in the year ahead, building on 2021’s strong results.

    Mid-market deals accounted for 31% of global transactions in 2021, and with dealmakers’ sights set on mid-cap deals to fast-track growth, this figure was considered likely to maintain its upward climb.

    While the value of global M&A deals reached an all-time high in 2021 of US$4.9 trillion, up 5 per cent on 2020, volume saw a starker increase. 

    Global M&A deal volumes rose to 34,128 transactions in 2021, from 34,006 in 2020, remaining below pre-pandemic volume.  

    Mid-market transactions increased to 10,523 from 8,500 in 2020, suggesting dealmakers are continuing to leverage the strong fundamentals and track records of businesses expanding into new markets.  

    But even before the war in Ukraine, dealmakers were sounding the alarm on escalating global tensions.

    Europe’s M&A recovery has been less dramatic than in other regions, with deal totals down from 2020 and well below pre-pandemic figures. Still, deal values rose sharply, up 50 per cent to US$1.35 trillion.

    While the pace of M&A picked up in the second half of the year, as a series of mega deals was announced in Europe and competition erupted for highly prized assets, there is no doubt the Ukrainian war will stall some dealmaking.

    “In situations like these, as we saw in the early part of the pandemic, deal doers (and makers) tend to pause, take a breath, and evaluate the situation to see how it will play out.”

    – Rob Dando

    “The war in Ukraine, and the political and economic uncertainties it brings could cause a slowdown in the M&A market,” says Rob Dando, Corporate Finance Partner & Transaction Services Leader at MHA MacIntyre Hudson, part of the Baker Tilly Network in the UK.

    “We have had feedback from clients already that the process of obtaining new funds for dealmaking could take much longer than initially expected, especially in the US with companies looking to transact in Europe.

    “In situations like these, as we saw in the early part of the pandemic, deal doers (and makers) tend to pause, take a breath, and evaluate the situation to see how it will play out.”

    It remains to be seen if the impact of those concerns will be contained to Europe or whether other regions will continue to transact at a rapid pace.

    North America was the top geography by M&A deal value in 2021, recording nearly US$3 trillion in deals, while the Asia Pacific region had the highest level of deal volume, with more than 11,500 deals.

    Mr Dando said there were numerous factors that dealmakers internationally would need to assess when deciding to pursue or progress deals in the shadow of war.

    “It might be, how will this impact global commodity prices, energy prices and the equity capital markets for example,” he said.

    “These macroeconomic effects then filter down into the mid and smaller markets. We have not yet seen a slowdown but that doesn’t mean to say there won’t be one.”

    Dealmakers look for the signs

    As with COVID, dealmakers will be looking to signals and leading indicators to determine how this new wave of disruption will impact activity.

    Last year confirmed the ongoing strength of the tech sector as a leading source of deals, thanks to the pandemic-led acceleration of trends like e-commerce and cloud-based remote working.

    Tech accounted for 33 per cent of global M&A deal volumes and 36 per cent of deal values last year.

    The pharmaceutical industry also has naturally captured dealmakers’ attention with the rapid expansion of the biotechnology sector, developing new vaccines and treatments for COVID-19.

    This sector accounted for 10 per cent of global M&A last year, in both volume and value.

    But the defence sector had a challenging year, with few deals and little value in transactions. Agriculture represented less than one per cent on each scale.

    Recent events could change that — and could also trigger rapid consolidation and change in the energy, industrial and agricultural sector as Europe moves to uncouple industry and countries from reliance on Russian exports.

    Baker Tilly Corporate Finance Lead Michael Sonego says the COVID concerns that dominated thinking in 2020 and 2021 have now been outpaced by other challenges.

    “Dealmakers are now looking at how these intersect, when assessing targets that are going to deliver value and spur growth in the latter half of this decade.”

    – Michael Sonego

    “While many deal discussions are still couched in terms of the current COVID challenges, other key macro issues, from climate change to the rise of cryptocurrencies, to the pace of digital transformation have their own centres of gravity,” he says.

    “Dealmakers are now looking at how these intersect, when assessing targets that are going to deliver value and spur growth in the latter half of this decade.”

    Download our Global dealmakers 2022: M&A market update.

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  • Global dealmakers 2024: Divestitures in M&A transactions

    Global dealmakers 2024: Divestitures in M&A transactions

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS 2024
    Divestitures in M&A transactions

    Foreword

    Dealmakers are contending with an increasingly complex business environment – and many in the US market are reassessing growth strategies to include asset sales and divestitures to navigate future uncertainties.
    Global M&A has undergone significant shifts in recent years, shaped by economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions and evolving business strategies. While dealmakers continue to pursue acquisitions to achieve growth and outward expansion, many are looking inward to reassess their portfolios and shed non-core assets. As a result, divestitures have emerged as a critical strategy for organisations seeking to sharpen their focus, raise capital and unlock shareholder value.

    Several factors are driving these trends. Economic uncertainty, influenced by inflation, rising interest rates and the looming risk of a global recession have promoted dealmakers to adopt a more cautious approach to capital allocation. Divesting non-core assets allows organisations to free up resources, enabling them to reinvest in higher-growth areas or bolster their balance sheets in anticipation of potential economic challenges.

    Regulatory pressures have also come into play, as governments worldwide impose stricter oversight on cross-border M&A. In response, companies are increasingly divesting foreign assets or restructuring supply chains to minimise dependence on specific markets or regions.

    In the US, the world’s largest M&A market, the divestiture trend is particularly robust, as indicated by an international group of dealmakers interviewed as part of the research for this report.
    All participants had completed at least one divestiture in the past 12-24 months – and almost half (48%) say they are looking to offload more businesses and operations in the year ahead.
    Many are turning to carve-outs as part of their divestment strategies. These transactions, where a parent company separates a business unit to operate independently, are becoming increasingly popular in corporate America as industrial giants look to refocus their efforts and boost shareholder value. As we look ahead, the growing emphasis on divestitures and carve-outs in the US M&A market signals a shift towards more agile and focused organisations.

    This trend is likely to have far-reaching implications for the broader business ecosystem, potentially catalysing increased M&A activity, driving sector consolidation and spurring innovation as companies seek to optimise their market positions. For dealmakers and executive decision-makers, understanding and leveraging this divestiture trend will be crucial to navigating the evolving M&A landscape and identifying opportunities for value creation in the years to come.

    The insights in this report set out the current trends shaping the US M&A market. It also provides a snapshot of best practices and actionable steps that other dealmakers can follow if they are considering or planning divestitures of their own, providing a valuable roadmap for success.

    In today’s economic environment, divestitures have become a crucial strategy for organisations to streamline operations and refocus on core business activities.
    By shedding non-core assets, organisations free up cash, simplify operations, unlock shareholder value and position themselves for long-term growth in a dynamic market. Baker Tilly’s corporate finance teams can help organisations successfully navigate the complexities of divestitures, ensuring a clean break while maximising returns and minimising costs.”

    Harsh Maheshwari
    Head of Corporate Finance, Baker Tilly International

    The divestiture dividend: Dealmakers fuel growth through strategic sell-offs

    Dealmakers are sending strong and clear signals that divestitures  will play a pivotal role in shaping corporate  strategies and driving M&A in the US market going forward.
    Nearly two-thirds (63%) of respondents say these actions will have a major impact on overall short-term M&A trends (Figure 1). This underscores a growing recognition of the value that divestitures can bring to organisations, not merely as a means of shedding non-core assets but as a strategic manoeuvre to streamline operations and enhance financial performance. “As markets become more competitive, divestitures can open new doors for companies that have been stuck with the same market position for a long-time. They can invest in better assets with better synergetic potential,” says the head of strategy at a US corporation.
    Figure 1. How much of an impact will divestitures have on driving M&A activity in the US market in the year ahead?
    Equally significant, nearly half of dealmakers (48%) are considering further divestitures or carve-outs, having already completed at least one such transaction in the past 12-24 months (Figure 2). This underscores the growing role of divestitures as a recurring strategic tool, with 13% of respondents actively exploring additional sell-offs in the immediate future.
    Figure 2. What future plans does your organisation have regarding further divestitures/carve-outs?
    Figure 3. What was the impact of the divestiture/carve-out on the rest of the organisation?

    Out with the old: Recent divestitures score high marks

    One of the most compelling cases for divestitures is the overwhelmingly positive outcomes being realised. Dealmaker sentiments highlight that these benefits have been multifaceted and significant:
    Improved financial performance: Most dealmakers (55%) reported that recent divestitures allowed their organisations to enhance their financial positions (Figure 3), allowing them to reinvest in more profitable areas of the business, reduce debt or increase liquidity. “The financial performance was impacted positively by the deal. It improved the funds available for alternative investment options,” says the managing partner at a PE/VC firm from the Netherlands.

    Operational cost reductions: Half of dealmakers (50%) also said that divestitures helped lower operational expenses. By divesting assets, organisations can streamline their operations, reduce overheads and achieve greater operational efficiency.

    Enhanced focus on core activities: 47% of respondents noted that divestitures allowed their organisations to sharpen their focus on core business areas. By divesting, they were able to reallocate more resources and management attention to primary operations, driving innovation and growth in these critical areas. Equally, 33% of respondents say proceeds from recent divestitures were used to reinvest in strategic business areas, the second-greatest use of these funds (Figure 4). “Rather than opt for debt options, we used the proceeds from the divestiture to enhance automation and implementation of the latest technologies in our industry,” says the CEO of an Austrian corporation.

    In with the new: M&A and expansion

    Beyond the immediate operational and financial benefits, recent divestitures provided dealmakers with greater financial firepower to fund new investments. Most respondents (40%) say that proceeds from their recent divestitures were used to make acquisitions of other businesses (Figure 4). This approach allowed them to rapidly pivot towards more promising market segments or technologies.
    “We need to improve our portfolios on a regular basis, and usually divestments are considered with the intention to fund new acquisitions,” says the managing director of a PE/VC firm in the US.
    The strategic use of divestiture proceeds demonstrates that these transactions are not merely about shedding assets or reducing costs. Rather, they are increasingly viewed as a means of unlocking capital to fund transformative change and drive long-term value creation.

    Divestitures are emerging as a vital strategy across sectors like technology, healthcare and industrials, allowing organisations to enhance financial performance and streamline operations. With 63% of dealmakers predicting a significant impact on short-term M&A trends, these strategic sell-offs are particularly reshaping industries where agility and innovation are key.”

    Xavier Mercadé
    CEO, Baker Tilly Spain
    Figure 4. How were the proceeds from the divestiture/carve-out utilised?

    US market update: M&A and divestiture trends

    The M&A environment in the US has been challenging over the past year, to say the least.
    Rising interest rates, inflationary pressures and geopolitical uncertainties have created headwinds for dealmaking. These factors have led to increased caution among dealmakers, with some opting to delay or reconsider possible acquisitions. Additionally, regulatory scrutiny is arising as another hurdle many dealmakers must contend with.

    That being said, M&A totals in 1H2024 showed a slight increase compared to the previous half-year (Figure 5). Despite the uptick, overall volumes remain below pre-pandemic levels, although deal values seem to have bounced back to some extent following depressed levels in late 2022 and early 2023.
    Figure 5. US M&A: Total deals
    Figure 6. US M&A: Divestitures

    Divestiture activity has followed a similar pattern. Declining divestitures saw a sharp reversal in 1H2024 as companies put greater emphasis on reassessing their portfolios (Figure 6). Increased regulatory scrutiny in industries like technology and healthcare is prompting some companies to divest assets to avoid antitrust issues, while others have been divesting assets as part of their sustainability efforts.

    One notable trend in divestitures has been the rise of carve-outs, where companies are selling a subsidiary or division that operates independently of the parent company. Carve-outs have become an attractive option for companies looking to unlock value from non-core assets while retaining some level of ownership or involvement. For example, General Electric’s decision to spin off its healthcare division into a separate company is a prime example of a strategic carve-out aimed at focusing on core industrial operations.

    Outlook 2025

    Going forward, while the US M&A market is likely to face headwinds in the near term, the fundamental drivers of dealmaking remain intact. Companies will need to be strategic and adaptable in navigating the evolving landscape, balancing growth ambitions with the need to manage risks and regulatory challenges. As such, deal volumes and values are expected to stabilise at more moderate levels, driven by selective acquisitions.
    On the divestiture front, asset sales are expected to remain a prominent trend in 2025, as companies continue to optimise their portfolios. Looking ahead, respondent sentiment suggests a potential robust increase in divestitures over the next 12-24 months, with 69% anticipating a rise, particularly in carve-outs (Figure 7). Additionally, the role of activist investors is expected to grow, driving more companies to divest underperforming assets to unlock value.
    Ultimately, the pace of divestments will largely depend on broader economic conditions. In a volatile market, companies may accelerate plans to sell assets to raise cash and strengthen balance sheets.

    Figure 7. Do you foresee an increase or decrease in divestitures/carve-outs in the US market over the next 12-24 months?

    The rise of carve-outs: Advantages and opportunities

    Carve-outs have emerged as a powerful tool in dealmaker strategies, offering key advantages over other divestiture methods.

    This approach allows organisations to separate specific assets, divisions or business units from the parent company, facilitating more focused management and potentially higher-value realisation. Dealmaker sentiments provide insight into how carve-outs have gained prominence due to their unique benefits.

    Flexibility in transaction structure

    Almost two-thirds of respondents (65%) say the main advantage of carve-outs is the flexibility they offer in structuring the transaction (Figure 8). Carve-outs enable companies to tailor the divestiture process to meet specific strategic and financial objectives. Unlike outright sales, carve-outs also offer a range of options in terms of how much control the parent company retains, how the transaction is financed and how the newly separated entity is positioned in the market.

    For example, a parent company might choose to retain a minority stake in the carved-out business, allowing it to benefit from future growth. This can be an attractive option when the parent company believes in the long-term potential of the business being divested but wants to reduce its exposure.

    Value maximisation

    More than half of respondents (58%) also say that carve-outs lead to greater value maximisation. By separating a business unit or asset from the parent company, carve-outs can unlock hidden value and attract buyers or investors who are specifically interested in that particular business. This newly independent entity can often command a higher valuation as a standalone business, free from the constraints and competing priorities of its former parent.

    “Value maximisation is one of the main benefits. Divesting fully from the non-core unit can provide a substantial amount of funds within a short amount of time. It allows companies to improve their competitive position,” says the head of strategy at a US corporation.

    In the current US M&A landscape, divestitures are not only a means of shedding non-core assets but also a powerful strategy for unlocking capital to fund new investments. With 40% of US dealmakers using divestiture proceeds for acquisitions, companies are rapidly pivoting towards promising markets and technologies. Carve-outs, in particular, are becoming a preferred method, offering flexibility and value maximisation while helping organisations navigate regulatory and operational complexities.”

    Bill Chapman
    Principal, Baker Tilly (US)

    Figure 8. What are the key advantages of using carve-outs to divest assets or business units, compared to other divestiture methods in an M&A strategy?

    Risk management

    Carve-outs also offer advantages in terms of risk management, according to 57% of respondents. In today’s increasingly complex and uncertain business environment, carve-outs enable the parent company to isolate riskier or non-core businesses from its main operations, thereby protecting the broader organisation from potential downsides.

    “The risk containment potential is good compared to other divestiture methods. If companies ensure proper legal and compliance methods over time, there are fewer risks and maximised value during the carve-out,” says the head of strategy at a Swedish company.

    Divestiture drivers

    Divestitures and carve-outs are allowing companies to adapt to rapidly changing market dynamics. Survey sentiment sheds light on why dealmakers are opting to sell off parts of their operations or carve out specific units.

    Technological disruption and digital transformation

    Most respondents (62%) stated that technological disruption was the primary reason behind their decision to divest assets (Figure 9). As industries undergo digital transformation, dealmakers are being forced to reassess business models and focus on areas where they can maintain a competitive advantage. This often means divesting legacy assets that are no longer aligned with the organisation’s long-term strategic goals.

    This trend is particularly evident in sectors where traditional business models are being upended by automation and digitalisation. In manufacturing, for example, firms are opting to divest legacy production facilities that are ill equipped to handle the demand of a digitally driven market.

    Similarly, in retail, divestitures are a growing trend. Impacted by the rise of e-commerce, traditional brick-and-mortar retailers are selling off real estate and other non-core assets to focus on expanding their online presence and enhance their digital capabilities.

    Divestitures are increasingly driven by technological disruption, market competition and the need for financial restructuring. As industries adapt to digital transformation and rising ESG expectations, companies are shedding legacy assets to remain competitive and agile. Growing pressure from investors, consumers and regulators is pushing organisations to align with sustainable business practices, making ESG considerations a key factor in divestiture decisions.”

    Olivier Willems
    CEO, Baker Tilly Belgium

    Market competition and agility

    The second most significant driver (58%) is intensifying market competition and the need for greater agility. In today’s fast-paced business environment, organisations must be able to pivot quickly in response to market shifts and emerging opportunities. Divestitures provide a means to streamline operations, reduce complexity and enhance overall responsiveness to market demands. By divesting non-core or underperforming assets, companies can become nimbler, allowing them to reallocate resources more efficiently and focus on their core strengths.

    “Market competition increased in several sectors. There’s been significant changes in the strategies employed for building competitive value. Executing divestitures and focusing on new investments have become more important,” says the partner at a US-based PE/VC firm.

    Financial restructuring and capital needs

    Nearly half (47%) of respondents say that financial considerations played a role in their decision to divest. In an era of economic uncertainty and rapidly changing market conditions, companies are increasingly looking to optimise their capital structures and shore up their financial positions. Divestitures can provide a valuable source of capital, allowing them to pay down debt, fund new investments or return value to shareholders.

    “Financial restructuring decisions are somewhat risky, but delays are not ideal for the continuance of the company. We decided to divest from the asset in order to build a better financial position,” says the chief strategy officer at an Italian company.

    Sustainability and environmental, social and governance (ESG)

    An emerging trend in divestiture motivations is the growing emphasis on sustainability and ESG factors. 45% of respondents cited these considerations as motivators of recent divestitures, reflecting the growing impact of sustainable business practices and potential pressure from investors, consumers and regulators to address environmental and social concerns.

    The big picture: Organisation-wide restructuring

    Importantly, sentiment indicates that recent divestitures and carve-outs are frequently integrated into broader restructuring initiatives rather than being standalone decisions. In fact, 62% of respondents report that their recent asset sales were part of a comprehensive effort to reorganise operations and refine overall business structures (Figure 10).

    This suggests that dealmakers are adopting a holistic approach to portfolio management, leveraging divestitures as a strategic tool to reshape their organisations for future growth and enhanced competitiveness. By aligning divestitures with broader restructuring efforts, firms can achieve more significant transformational impact and position themselves more effectively in their target markets.

    Figure 9. What are the main drivers behind your decision to complete a divestiture (select all that apply)?

    Figure 10. Was your most recent divestiture/carve-out part of a broader strategic restructuring of the business?

    Strategies for success: Maximising value and minimising disruptions

    Respondent sentiment provides valuable insights into how dealmakers are planning and executing divestitures. These best practices can help dealmakers navigate the complex process of divestitures more effectively and achieve their strategic objectives.

    Securing higher valuations

    One of the most critical aspects of a successful divestiture is maximising the valuation of the divested asset. Among the strategies respondents have turned to, the most prominent, cited by 62% of respondents, involved providing clear and transparent financials (Figure 11). Transparent financial reporting builds trust and reduces perceived risks, making the asset more attractive to buyers.

    Equally, potential buyers are more likely to offer a higher price when they have a thorough understanding of the financial health and performance of the business being sold.
    Effective marketing is another critical factor (according to 57%). By highlighting the strengths, growth potential and unique selling points of the business unit, companies can generate greater interest and competitive bidding among potential buyers. A well-executed marketing campaign can significantly enhance the perceived value of the asset.
    Investing in new technology prior to the sale was another key action to boost valuation, according to 55% of respondents. Upgrading technology can improve operational efficiency, reduce costs and demonstrate the asset’s readiness for future growth. This investment not only enhances the immediate appeal of the business but also positions it as a forward-thinking and innovative entity – thereby commanding a higher price.
    According to a partner at a US-based PE/VC firm, “I feel that investing in technology and innovation can really drive up the value of business units. It’s about making the company appear to be future-focused, and technology alone can make this happen.”

    Managing the transition

    Conducting risk assessments is a critical step when managing the transition of the asset from seller to buyer – 72% of respondents say they engaged in this practice to manage potential challenges (Figure 12). Identifying and addressing risks proactively helps develop contingency plans and ensures that the divestiture process proceeds without major disruptions.
    Change management strategies have also been vital, as indicated by 62% of respondents. Divestitures can cause uncertainty and anxiety among employees, customers and stakeholders. By addressing concerns and maintaining morale, companies can ensure a smoother transition and sustain productivity during the divestiture process.
    60% of respondents emphasised the importance of conducting joint planning sessions with buyers. Close collaboration facilitates a deeper understanding of each party’s expectations, timelines and integration plans. This approach fosters a positive relationship and can ultimately contribute to the success of the divestiture.

    Figure 11. What are some of the best ways to increase the valuation of divested assets/carved-out business entities prior to sale?

    Figure 12. What measure did you undertake to ensure a smooth transition and minimal disruption during the carve-out process?

    Key challenges and opportunities for improvement

    Divestitures are complex and challenging undertakings that demand meticulous planning, execution and communication.
    So, where are dealmakers facing the most challenges when completing divestitures, and how do they intend to adjust their strategies for future transactions?

    Negotiations

    The most significant challenge respondents faced was negotiating deal terms (68%) (Figure 13). This high percentage underscores the intricate nature of divestiture negotiations, which often involve complex discussions around transition service agreements, employee transfers and intellectual property rights, as well as differing valuation perspectives and the need to balance buyer and seller expectations. Difficulty in aligning interests of buyers and sellers, especially in a market where buyers are increasingly cautious and selective, contributes to the challenges of negotiations.

    For these reasons and others, 50% of respondents say that they would take different steps during future negotiations (Figure 14). Many recognise that effective negotiation is central to securing favourable deal terms. This could involve adopting more flexible tactics, engaging with multiple potential buyers or involving third-party advisers to provide objective perspectives.

    Employee transition management

    Many (65%) respondents say managing employee challenges was a major hurdle. This reflects the human aspect of divestitures, which can often be overlooked in favour of financial and operational considerations. Transferring employees to a new ownership structure can create uncertainty among the workforce. Ensuring a smooth transition is crucial not only for maintaining morale but also for preserving the operational continuity of the business being divested.

    Maximising the valuation of divested assets is essential for dealmakers, with transparent financial reporting, effective marketing and investing in technology identified as key strategies. Clear financials reduce risk and attract higher bids, while showcasing the asset’s growth potential through strategic marketing boosts buyer interest. By investing in new technology, companies can demonstrate innovation and position the asset for future success, ultimately commanding a higher price.”

    Michael Sonego
    Partner, Pitcher Partners

    Valuations

    Accurately valuing the business being divested is another area where respondents (55%) faced difficulties. Valuation is a critical step in the process and sets the foundation for negotiations and ultimately the financial success of the deal. However, arriving at a fair valuation can be difficult, especially in markets with high volatility or when the business has complex financial structures.

    Regulatory challenges

    Regulatory approvals were cited by 47% of respondents as a major obstacle. Securing these approvals can prove a major hurdle, often involving a time-consuming and uncertain process. Delays in obtaining the necessary approvals can derail timelines, increase costs and in some cases, even result in the abandonment of the deal.

    Lessons learned and future strategies

    In addition to refining their approach to negotiations, respondents also highlight several other areas where they would have made changes to enhance outcomes for future divestitures:

    Moving faster to capture value. One of the most frequently mentioned lessons was the importance of speed in completing the divestiture (according to 58% in Figure 14). As the partner at a Swedish PE/VC firm illustrates, “I would have focused on faster execution. The process was not organised. The due diligence process took much longer than we expected, and the negotiations were also more time-consuming than usual.”

    Enhancing stakeholder communications. 43% of respondents say they would have improved communications with stakeholders. Transparent and timely communication is critical to managing expectations and maintaining trust throughout the process. Clear communication can mitigate the uncertainty that often accompanies divestitures and helps ensure a smoother transition for all parties involved.
    Figure 13. What do you believe is the biggest challenge in executing a divesture/carve-out? (Select all that apply)
    Figure 14. Looking back, what would you have done differently in the divestiture/carve-out process to improve the overall outcome?
  • GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: M&A outlook 2023

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS: M&A outlook 2023

    GLOBAL DEALMAKERS
    M&A outlook 2023

    Foreword

    The last 12 months have been challenging for global dealmakers. Many have had to reset expectations and recalibrate risk appetite as macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical uncertainty put the brakes on deal activity. Inflationary pressures have likewise weighed on decision-making.

    Once again, we have seen the dealmaking landscape remade, this time in response to economic and geopolitical factors rather than health and social drivers. Despite the challenging market conditions, dealmakers remain optimistic, with many planning to increase deal activity over the next 12 months. Cross-border M&A remains relevant for businesses looking to expand their technical capabilities and grow their geographic reach.

    Harsh Maheshwari

    Head of Corporate Finance, Baker Tilly

    Harsh Maheshwari Head of Corporate Finance, Baker Tilly
    Global M&A deal value dropped by close to a third in 2022, as the war in Ukraine, soaring energy costs, rising inflation, and climbing interest rates hit market sentiment and saw investors and corporates scale back M&A ambitions and take a more cautious approach to new investment.

    The contrast with the ebullient market of 2021, when abundant liquidity and low interest rates spurred M&A activity to record highs, has been stark. Inflation – running at 40-year highs in developed economies – has left central banks with little option but to raise interest rates. Balance sheets have come under strain as a result, and financing for new deals has become more expensive and harder to source. M&A investors on the buyside, meanwhile, have been reluctant to pay yesterday’s multiples for assets that now face an uncertain future, while vendors have decided to delay sales until market conditions improve.

    Yet as challenging as the market has been, corporates and private equity dealmakers have not drawn up the shutters. When assets have transacted, lower entry multiples have made for compelling investment opportunities, and M&A has been a crucial tool for unlocking synergies and building scale. Companies also continue to turn to dealmaking to digitalise their organisations and expand into new markets.

    Despite all the headwinds, cross-border M&A has remained particularly relevant for businesses looking for opportunities to expand their technical capabilities and grow geographic reach.

    In this research, we explore the outlook for global M&A in 2023 and beyond. Our research finds that dealmakers are overwhelmingly optimistic, with the majority planning to increase deal activity during the next 12 months. We look into the tactics and strategies dealmakers are implementing to sustain deal flow in what is still a tough market and explore some of the key drivers and challenges that will influence their decisions.

    This is still a volatile period in the economic cycle, but dealmakers can’t afford to sit still, and remain on the lookout for deals that further their strategic aims or offer long-term value.

    We hope you find the report informative and helpful, and our partners would welcome the opportunity to discuss the findings further.

    Key Findings

    of respondents say global M&A will increase in the year ahead.



    0 %
    say rising inflation and geopolitical challenges are actually making them more likely to engage in cross-border M&A.
    0 %
    say they have completed a cross-border deal in the past year – and 11% who have not say they are actively looking for such opportunities.
    0 %
    say they are looking for M&A opportunities in Western Europe, and 46% say they have their sights set on North America.
    0 %
    say increasing market share and geographic expansion is a top deal driver for cross-border M&A.
    0 %
    say digital transformation will be a primary driver of cross-border M&A.

    0 %
    say the mid-market (deals valued between US$15m-US$500m) will see the most activity in the year ahead.
    0 %
    say their most recent mid-market deal met or exceeded expectations.

    0 %
    say a difficult economic environment will be the top challenge facing dealmakers as they pursue cross-border deals.
    0 %
    say due diligence is becoming more difficult compared to 12 months ago.


    0 %
    say ESG considerations factor into every deal – and 32% say they factor it into most deals.


    0 %
    say TMT is the most attractive sector for deals, followed by industrials and chemicals (51%).

    0 %

    Global M&A dealmakers anticipate a robust year ahead despite geopolitical and economic headwinds

    Despite a rising tide of macroeconomic and geopolitical challenges, dealmakers are sending strong and clear signals that they will continue to pursue deals in 2023 and beyond.

    In fact, most respondents say that current challenges – including inflationary pressures and uncertainties caused by the war in Ukraine – are creating opportunities for deals. As such, 52% say they will be increasing domestic M&A and close to half (46%) say they will pursue more cross-border transactions (Figure 1).

    More generally, many respondents see a robust deal market through 2023 with more than half (52%) expecting global M&A to increase (Figure 2). Another third (31%) are confident levels will at least remain stable.

    Indeed, respondents believe that current volatile market conditions could pave the way to acquire high-quality assets at attractive valuations. The MSCI World stock market index shed 17.73% in 2022, with the decline in equity market values dripping down into the M&A space. According to Bain & Co analysis of Dealogic data, M&A deal multiples dropped from a historic high of 15.4x EBITDA in 2021 to 11.9x in 2022. This did see some vendors pull deals out of sales processes – but for buyers, market dislocation has offered compelling value, especially for mid-market deal targets.

    Figure 1. What impact will rising inflation and the war in Ukraine have on your dealmaking appetite in the year ahead?

    “In the next 12 months, there will be a significant increase in M&A activity in Europe and Asia Pacific due to valuations and the greater availability of deals in the small and mid-cap markets,” a director of strategy at an Italian business said.

    Dealmakers also see M&A as a tool for reducing overheads and finding synergies at a time when corporates and consumers are reducing spending and liquidity is tight.

    “Both cross-border and domestic deals will increase. We want to adapt to the changing market conditions in a systematic manner. We will be pursuing more cost synergies in the next few months,” the head of mergers and acquisitions at a German firm said.

    Figure 2. What do you think will happen to the level of global M&A activity in the next 12 months?

    Cross-border M&A: Driving growth in new markets

    Geopolitical tensions between the West and China, the war in Ukraine, and tighter regulatory oversight of foreign investment into key strategic industries are not stopping businesses from looking beyond their home markets for attractive deal targets.

    Cross-border M&A has been key to recent strategies – and this will continue as dealmakers search the globe for opportunities. Most dealmakers (82%) have completed a cross-border deal in the past year – and 7% who said they haven’t are now prioritising opportunities outside their home markets (Figure 3).

    Figure 3. Have you completed a cross-border deal in the past 12 months?

    “We are actively looking for cross-border deal opportunities. I think it is time that we expand our activities to new markets. A more diversified approach is needed when market conditions are volatile,” the managing director of a Malaysian company said.

    Only 27% said they would focus on domestic deals in the year ahead (Figure 4). Respondents cite valuations (86%) and skilled labor (67%) as the key factors that make some regions more attractive for investment than others (Figure 5).

    Figure 4. Where will your company/firm look for investment opportunities in the year ahead?

    Global ambitions: Value in key markets

    Most respondents – and by a wide margin – will look for deals in Western Europe (59%) and North America (46%) when considering investments outside their home turf, with the stability and cultural similarities of the two markets appealing to dealmakers.

    “We would like to invest in the UK and North America primarily. We can focus on important objectives, and it will be easier to conduct integration activities. There are few cultural challenges,” a UK partner at one firm said.

    Big ticket cross-border deals between the two regions in 2022 include UK-based pharma company GlaxoSmithKline’s US$3.3bn acquisition of US vaccine developer Affinivax, and the Royal Bank of Canada’s £1.6bn takeover of UK wealth manager Brewin Dolphin. These deals demonstrate the resilience and strategic value of transatlantic dealmaking.

    APAC markets ranked lower, but still offer attractive emerging market opportunities for dealmakers with the right risk tolerance and deal strategies.

    “There are developing economies in Asia Pacific and the cost of labour and manufacturing is quite low. These will be the main considerations when pursuing deals in Asia Pacific,” the managing director of a Vietnamese corporation said.

    Notable cross-border deals into the APAC region include US-based PE firm Warburg Pincus leading a US$250m investment in Vietnamese real estate developer Novaland and the US$7.4bn takeover of Hong Kong-based Baring Private Equity Asia by Swedish private markets investor EQT.

    Figure 5. Regarding the geographies where you intend to invest within the next 12-24 months, which of the following makes them attractive investment destinations?

    Dealmakers are being driven to find value, and they are looking beyond their domestic markets to find well-priced talent, technology and opportunities to diversify. At the same time, cross-border dealing comes with a heightened risk awareness, so we expect due diligence timeframes for cross-border activity to reflect this greater sensitivity.

    Michael Sonego

    Partner, Pitcher Partners Australia

    Global M&A: State of the market

    Global dealmakers experienced a challenging year in 2022. The Ukraine conflict, rising interest rates, climbing inflation and choppy equity markets dampened risk appetite and put deals on the backburner after a bumper year of activity in 2021.

    Global deal value declined by almost a third (31%) from US$5.82tn in 2021 to US$3.96tn in 2022. Cross-border deal value and domestic deal value suffered similar fates, with year-on-year declines of 36% and 29%, respectively.

    Despite this backdrop, worldwide M&A activity has on the whole held up well. Cross-border and domestic deal volumes actually increased slightly on 2021 levels, and deal value totals, although down year-on-year, are still ahead of pre-pandemic totals.

    The figures indicate that although mega-deals may have been put on hold for now, M&A has remained a strategic imperative in turbulent times. Private equity firms and corporates alike continue to pursue smaller bolt-on acquisitions and deals that open new markets and cost synergies.

    Steady transaction volumes and stable, long-term deal value totals through the current period of dislocation have given dealmakers confidence in the M&A market’s resilience, placing dealmaking firmly on the radar for the next 12 months.

    “Continued dealmaking is needed even in this unpredictable situation. We have to reach new customers in new markets, and acquisitions in the next year can help us achieve these goals,” the managing director of a US business said.

    Figure 6. Global M&A

    Investors have become highly selective and are investing more resources in due diligence to ensure that deal targets pass muster, but companies that clear the quality will continue to trade.

    “We have not let the conditions impact our dealmaking appetite. In the next year, we will think about new deals objectively. Assessing the target company thoroughly will be important,” a partner at a Dutch investment firm said.

    Deal drivers: Preparing for macro challenges and boosting digital transformation are core priorities

    Global dealmakers see cross-border M&A as vital to achieving growth strategies and restructuring efforts in 2023. Indeed, as they prepare for challenging market conditions ahead, strategic drivers and investment objectives are focused on several key themes:

    Deal drivers: Preparing for macro challenges and boosting digital transformation are core priorities

    Boosting growth and restructuring business models are top of mind for dealmakers and many are using their cross-border investments to achieve these goals. Recent deals have been driven by the search for increasing market share and geographical expansion – and 73% expect this to be the top priority going forward (Figure 7).

    Likewise, supply chain resilience is another key theme informing cross-border deal rationales, with 60% focusing on expanding supply chains. A surge in demand for goods as economies reopened after lockdowns, coupled with the impact on the supply of energy, chemicals and foodstuffs as a result of the Ukraine war have put supply chains under severe pressure, resulting in bottlenecks and inflation.

    Companies have responded by acquiring targets that strengthen their logistics capabilities and give them control of production, as seen with clothing retailer American Eagle Outfitters buying fulfilment technology business Quiet Logistics and engine maker Cummins acquiring parts supplier Meritor.

    “We will be sourcing deals to expand our product range and also ensure that the supply chains are more flexible,” the vice president of a Belgian corporate said.

    Improving economies of scale (45%) is also driving deal strategy, as companies position to weather inflationary pressures and macro uncertainty. This emphasis on stability is further underscored by the finding that more dealmakers are focused on strengthening their industry position through consolidation (43%) than ambitious transformational acquisitions (16%).

    Figure 7. Which of the following best describes the main strategic driver of your most recent crossborder acquisition? What do you anticipate will be the main driver of future cross-border acquisitions?

    The digital agenda

    Digital transformation and buying IP was the second greatest strategic priority, according to 69% of respondents. “Digital transformation has become important to increase the profitability from operations in many sectors. Integrating automation and other favourable technologies helps derive more profits in the long term,” the managing director of an Australian corporate said.

    The senior managing director at a US business added: “We will be sourcing new targets in cross-border markets to acquire new technology. Digital transformation strategies do work well to accelerate growth and also meet client expectations.”

    Examples of companies turning to M&A to upgrade digital capabilities include US block chain security group Fireblocks paying US$100m for Israeli digital asset payments platform First Digital to broaden its payments offering and develop tools that embed digital asset technology in day-to-day back-office processes. US fintech platform Shift4, meanwhile, agreed to pay US$575m for Israel-based Finaro to upgrade its cross-border payments functionality.
    Legacy technology remains a challenge for many companies, but M&A presents a swift solution for restructuring and repositioning, as long as a suitable target can be identified. More broadly, VC funding for technology may be dwindling, and some investors are downgrading their investments in the sector. Although this may pose challenges for TMT companies, it could be favourable for those seeking market consolidation and bolt-on technology buys.

    Xavi Mercadé

    CEO, Baker Tilly Spain

    Mid-market M&A

    Respondents also say mid-market deals (those valued between US$15m-US$500m) will drive M&A in the year ahead. Overwhelmingly, 78% say the mid-cap transactions will account for the majority of deals (Figure 8).

    “The consistency of financial output from mid-market companies will drive more deal activity. In most regions, mid-market deals are completed systematically as compared to the small- and large-cap space,” an Italian strategy director said.

    Unlike mega-deals, which require large debt packages and liquid capital markets for funding, mid-market deals have been shielded from dislocation in syndicated loan and high-yield bond markets. Buyers have been able to finance deals entirely with equity or with support from private debt providers, who have remained open for business despite interest rate and inflationary pressures.

    Figure 8. Which deal segment will see the most M&A activity (by deal volume) over the next 12 months?

    Respondents also point out that in a period of uncer tainty, dealmakers are more cautious about writing big cheques to fund blockbuster transactions, preferring to back a more diverse spread of mid-market assets and add-on acquisitions. The risk of large deal negotiations breaking down in an economic downturn, coupled with antitrust regulatory risk, has seen dealmakers pivot toward more mid-market deals too.

    “There are fewer risks investing in mid-markets, so the number of deals will be higher. Large-cap companies are not very stable and deals in the large-cap market will be scrutinised more by regulators,” a partner at a UK investment firm said.

    Deal focus: The mid-market opportunity

    It is tempting to see the decline of mega-deals as a broader symptom of a challenging market, but global mid-market M&A had a record year for volumes in 2022, and only saw a minor decline in value. We can see that mid-market M&A continues to be a sweet spot for dealmakers, while dealmakers are highly attuned to looking beyond their domestic borders for opportunities.

    William Chapman

    Partner, Baker Tilly US

    Dealmakers are increasingly turning to the mid-market to capture value and harness synergies. Every respondent in this research completed at least one mid-market investment in the past two years – and more than half (55%) say these deals met or exceeded expectations (Figure 9).

    Mid-market M&A

    Mid-market deal flow is supported by a range of strategic drivers:

    Digital transformation

    Dealmakers are not only focused on valuation, and many will turn to mid-market M&A to help with digitalisation and facilitate change across the broader organisation. As such, 23% say digital transformation will be the top driver of mid-market M&A (Figure 10). “Digital transformation will be the main driver of dealmaking activity. Companies want to differentiate their services, providing more advanced digital solutions to their clients,” a managing director at a US corporate said.

    Mid-market momentum

    Mid-market M&A continued its upward trajectory in 2022, reaching historical highs as the deal segment continues to deliver value for dealmakers (Figure 11). Deal totals rose 9% year on year, greater than the 4% for global totals. Similarly, value only declined 7% from 2021, compared to the 31% drop for global values. Across the deal spectrum, mid-market deals accounted for 32% of all M&A in 2022, the highest percentage since 2017.

    Figure 9. How successful was your most recent mid-market acquisition in yielding the intended value from the deal or achieving business objectives?

    Succession planning

    Planning for the next generation of leadership as founders and owners look to exit their businesses will be the second greatest driver of mid-market M&A. As the baby boomer generation retires, many mid-cap businesses will be put up for sale, creating opportunities for strategic and private buyers to add to existing portfolios. The partner of a UK investment manager added: “Succession planning is required in many established companies in the mid-market. There will be more emphasis on involving partners who can drive innovation and customer engagement in the future.”

    Figure 10. Which of the following will be the main driver of mid-market M&A in the next 12 months?

    Distress-driven deals

    Respondents recognise, however, that mid-market businesses are not immune to macroeconomic headwinds. Smaller mid-market assets are more likely to have single supplier and customer exposure. In a tight labor market, mid-market companies are also more vulnerable if key staff depart. A fifth of respondents expect to see rising financial distress and insolvencies in the mid-market as a result, which will drive M&A.

    “Distress-driven opportunities will drive activity. There are many companies in the mid-market segment that have not been able to manage their cash flow adequately. This has resulted in an increase in insolvency numbers,” a managing partner at a US-based investment firm said.

    Figure 11. Global mid-market M&A

    Regional views: Opportunities in all corners of the globe

    Respondent sentiment is positive that M&A in key regions will be robust in 2023 as dealmakers foresee abundant prospects in both advanced and emerging markets.

    Asia Pacific: From strength to strength

    Dealmaker sentiment is strongest for a major rebound in M&A in Asia Pacific, with 74% saying deals in the region will increase in the year ahead (Figure 12). Just under a third (31%) expect this wave to be at a significant scale.

    The outlook for APAC dealmaking has been boosted after China, the dominant market in the region, ended a prolonged period of COVID lockdowns and reopened its economy. This has helped to lift domestic demand and drive growth.

    Respondents, however, also see huge potential in India (25%), which ranks among the top 10 markets where dealmakers will be searching for M&A (Figure 13). Southeast Asia is also firmly on the radar for overseas investors, many of which have recognised the long-term growth dynamics in the region.

    “Southeast Asia has a positive economic outlook. Even though there are developing economies, they are building a stronger presence in global markets. This has increased their scope,” the managing director of a Vietnamese corporate said.

    Respondents also see potential in the Australian market. Australia has a sophisticated M&A ecosystem, and its strong mining and energy sector has already generated significant transactional activity during the last year. High-profile deals include BHP Billiton’s plans to carve out its petroleum business in a sale to Woodside and a US$18.4bn bid from Brookfield and MidOcean Energy for energy retailer Origin Energy.
    For the Asia Pacific region, the strength of the recovery in 2022 is good news, although we have seen deals across the globe take longer due to the multiple economic challenges facing both buyers and sellers. Uncertainty in relation to the difficult economic environment is top of mind for nearly half of the dealmakers, and even if interest rates and funding constraints ease, that uncertainty won’t vanish overnight.

    Adrian Cheow

    Executive Director, Baker Tilly Singapore

    “Investing in Australia would be more comfortable. The reliable infrastructure and positive economic outlook are the main factors driving our decisions to invest here. We also have a ground presence and better experience conducting deals here,” a managing director said.

    Meanwhile, the rise of the private debt asset class in APAC, although positive in the long term, could slow the flow of deals in the region over the next 12 months. Private debt offers vendors an additional source of funding where M&A would previously have been the only option for companies under financial pressure. As such, close to half (47%) say this financing option will result in decreasing M&A (Figure 14).

    “There will be fewer deals due to the rise of private debt offerings. This creates more opportunities for companies to address their cash flow concerns. They can avoid financial distress,” a Japanese managing director said.

    North America and Europe: Developed markets dominate

    While respondents are optimistic that deal activity in emerging markets will surge, most are still focused mainly on investing in developed markets in 2023. More than half of respondents say deals will increase in Europe and North America, with 55% signaling that they will be looking for deal opportunities in the USA, specifically, followed by the UK (45%), Germany (41%) and France (31%).

    The survey responses suggest that dealmakers continue leaning toward more established markets, where there are mature deal targets in the relatively advanced healthcare and technology sectors that offer stability in the current period of volatility.

    Figure 12. What do you think will happen to the level of M&A activity in the following markets in the next 12 months?

    Jumbo tech deals continued to come to market through the year. Microsoft put in a US$68.7bn bid for gaming developer Activision Blizzard to accelerate its entry into the gaming space, although the transaction has been held up by antitrust regulatory concerns. Elon Musk’s US$44bn purchase of Twitter and Oracle’s US$28.3bn acquisition of health tech company Cerner also boosted deal totals for the year.

    Supply chain and logistics resilience also drove deals in North America, with warehouse operator Prologis seeking to build, scale and expand its warehouse estate with a US$26bn bid for market rival Duke Realty.

    In Europe, strong inbound interest sustained activity, with private equity and corporate buyers seeing value in European assets. US-based Thermo Fisher acquired UK diagnostics company The Binding Site in a US$2.6bn deal. This was one of many UK assets sold to US buyers investing dollars and taking advantage of weak sterling.

    Figure 13. Specifically, in which markets will your company/firm be looking for investment opportunities in the year ahead?

    Private equity firms, meanwhile, were drawn to stable European services and infrastructure assets, as observed in Clayton, Dubilier & Rice’s acquisition of French-headquartered facilities management group Atalian, and Blackstone and the Benetton family’s joint bid for Italian infrastructure group Atlantia.

    Although high levels of dry powder indicate that private equity will remain a force in European dealmaking in 2023, respondents are factoring in potential for a dip in private equity activity after a decline in fundraising in 2022. As Figure 14 shows, 68% say this will negatively impact M&A with declines likely to ensue.

    In the face of macroeconomic dislocation and declines in portfolio value, investors took pause before making commitments to new funds and sold off existing fund stakes in the secondary market to rebalance portfolios as the denominator effect (when the value of one part of a portfolio declines faster than others) kicked in.

    “The slowdown will impact dealmaking activity immensely. Private equity firms have seen promising growth numbers in the past, and only the past year has been challenging for fundraising,” a M&A vice president said.

    Figure 14. Sentiments regarding private equity fundraising in Europe and private debt markets in APAC

    Middle East, Africa and Latin America: Promising horizons

    Respondents also see opportunity in the Middle East and Africa, with 55% anticipating a spike in activity. To a lesser but still important extent, 36% say M&A will increase in Latin America.

    In recent years, these regions have emerged as some of the most attractive investment destinations for dealmakers looking to gain exposure to developing markets. All three regions are experiencing rapid economic growth, driven by a range of factors including demographic changes, urbanisation, and political and economic reforms.

    For instance, with a young and increasingly educated population, these regions are ripe for innovation and entrepreneurship, making them attractive destinations for venture capital and private equity investors. Likewise, a rapidly expanding middle class is driving demand for consumer goods and services, while significant investments in infrastructure are unlocking new opportunities across sectors including energy, agriculture, and manufacturing.

    Sector watch: Digital transformation and distress drive sweeping changes across industries

    Tech: Digital deals

    With digital transformation a core priority, the technology, media and telecommunications (TMT) space stands out as the top sector for M&A. In 2022, TMT deal value came in at just over US$1tn, accounting for close to a third of overall global value. Interest is set to remain steady and strong: close to two-thirds of respondents (61%) say they will focus investments in TMT over the next two years as they use these deals to catalyse change and inject a dose of innovation into business operations (Figure 15).

    Maintaining a competitive edge

    One key driver of TMT M&A is the rapid pace of technological change. Companies in this sector are constantly looking to acquire new technology or innovative startups to stay ahead of the competition. The increasing importance of digital transformation is also leading companies to expand their offerings and capabilities in areas such as cloud computing, artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. “The TMT industry will see strong growth trends in the future. Specifically, technologies in cloud, AI, analytics, blockchain and robotics are improving the effectiveness of businesses overall,” says the managing director of a Vietnamese company.

    Cross-sector opportunities

    From healthcare to finance to manufacturing, digital transformation is revolutionising the way companies operate. As a result, companies across all industries are investing in digital initiatives to stay ahead of the curve and achieve long-term success. As the head of M&A at a Chinese company highlights, “Technology caters to a lot of industries. This includes hardware and software companies. Investments will prove to be highly profitable.”

    Mergers and the mid-market

    A number of respondents point out that mergers and consolidations within the TMT space are a developing theme and opportunity area for dealmakers. This is a particularly strong case in the mid-market, where companies may be facing financial pressures but present M&A opportunities at attractive valuations. “Market consolidation [in the mid-market] will be one of our intentions of completing deals in the telecom and media segments,” says the head of M&A at an Italian firm.

    A challenging outlook

    The technology space, however, has not been without its difficulties. The volatile valuations that have hit the sector, as well as the large-scale layoffs at some technology businesses, are set to impact the industry during the next year according to most respondents. Some see these pressures extending even longer (Figure 16). “Investors are withdrawing their support from TMT companies. The cash crunch is causing a lot of volatility in financial markets. I feel that these risks cannot be mitigated very soon,” the senior director of strategy and development at a business in Singapore said.

    Figure 15. Which of the following sectors do you think will be most attractive over the next 12-24 months for general M&A and specifically mid-market transactions?

    Acquisitions in technology are now a recognised path to support digital transformation and obtain a competitive advantage, which can be seen in the ongoing interest in the TMT sector. While the poor performance of a lot of technology giants this year might weigh against some of the mega-deals in this sector, the mid-market understands it needs to leverage technology to broaden business models, improve efficiencies and offer consumers a point of difference.

    Xavi Mercadé

    CEO, Baker Tilly Spain

    Industrials and chemicals: Manufacturing change

    The industrials and manufacturing sector is also tipped to see a surge in M&A. More than half (51%) of respondents say they will focus on dealmaking in this space, with many mentioning the significant changes shaping the industry and creating new opportunities.

    Adopting advanced technologies

    Automation, robotics and AI are greatly improving efficiency, reducing costs and enhancing productivity among manufacturers. With the increasing demand for customised products and services, these companies are leveraging technologies to enhance their capabilities.

    ESG

    Increasingly, industrials and manufacturing companies are focusing on sustainability and environmental responsibility. With rising awareness of the negative impact of manufacturing on the environment, companies are investing in green technologies and practices to reduce their carbon footprints, improve energy efficiency and minimise waste.

    Consolidation and divestitures

    With the increasing competition and pressure to reduce costs, many companies in this sector are pursuing consolidation to achieve economies of scale and enhance their market position. The trend is expected to continue, as companies seek to expand their capabilities and achieve greater efficiencies, particularly in response to rising commodity prices and supply chain bottlenecks. According to the director of strategy at an Italian company, “Although supply chain challenges have impacted the industry in the past couple of years, there are vertical acquisition opportunities pursued by larger companies.” Likewise, portfolio optimisation could be a key driver as industrial companies reassess and offload businesses that are non-core or underperforming.

    Figure 16. How long do you anticipate current low/volatile valuations and widespread layoffs to impact the TMT sector?

    Traditional sectors like real estate and energy continue to have an uncertain outlook. Some commercial real estate investments have been left stranded by the changing nature of work, transport and operations during the COVID-19 years. There’s an ongoing need in Europe, particularly to shed olderstyle buildings that have highenergy requirements. Real estate is expected to bear the brunt of an increase in distressed sales, with construction not far behind. Energy and resources sector companies also face ESG headwinds; however, the opportunity remains strong for those that have been reducing their emissions and improving sustainability performance.

    Olivier Willems

    Partner, Baker Tilly Belgium

    Risks outlook: Macro uncertainties and inflation create challenges in forecasting and due diligence

    The M&A outlook in 2023 may be broadly positive after a disruptive 2022, but there is nevertheless a recognition that deal execution will be difficult.

    Economic uncertainty

    Close to half (49%) of dealmakers say a challenging economic environment will be the top short-term risk – and many foresee conditions worsening as the year progresses (Figure 17). “The economic situation will worsen in the next 12 months. This will affect dealmaking decisions overall. Even if the deal pipeline is strong, it would take a significant amount of time to assess the true potential of deals,” a US investment manager partner said.

    Figure 17. What deal challenges/risks do you expect to face in the next 12-24 months?

    Interest rates and inflation

    Rising interest rates and inflation have been constant pain points for dealmakers over the past year – and most dealmakers foresee these as key risks into 2023. Primarily, dealmakers have been concerned that these twin challenges have made it difficult to forecast earnings and growth at prospective targets, a concern that was already an issue due to disruption caused by the pandemic.

    “Rising inflation does not allow us to gauge the valuation of companies accurately. Whether we decide to buy or sell, there will be valuation gaps that affect the dealmaking negotiations,” a director at a US corporate said.

    Over a third of respondents (39%) say rate increases will be the second greatest risk to deals and to a lesser extent, 24% say inflation will be a challenge. All things considered, these numbers could be much higher and perhaps reflect that dealmakers are finally adapting to an environment where both factors could remain volatile for the near term.

    Fundraising and deal financing

    More than a third (37%) in Figure 17 say raising funds will be a challenge and many more (70%) think financing market conditions will turn negative in 2023 compared to the past two years, with capital markets effectively shuttered as increasingly risk-averse lenders take a more cautious approach to underwriting (Figure 18).

    “Companies cannot leverage their assets for additional financing as they usually do. The lender attitude has changed a lot in the past couple of months due to rising insolvencies,” a managing director at a US company said.

    Figure 18. What do you expect financing market conditions to be like in 2023 compared to the past 12-24 months?

    Due diligence

    The challenging market backdrop has made it more difficult to conduct due diligence. Although only 27% in Figure 17 say say due diligence will be their main challenge, most agree (52%) that investigations are more difficult to complete today compared to 12 months ago (Figure 19).

    Unpredictable stock markets and choppy company earnings have made it difficult for dealmakers to model valuations against future earnings. This is prolonging due diligence periods and increasing costs.

    As a result, 49% say they have added resources to bolster due diligence efforts – and another 21% say they will in the near future (Figure 20). “In the current environment, completing due diligence is significantly more challenging. The financial records are not consistent. Inflation and interest rate risks have affected the value of most businesses,” the director of a US business said.

    As dealmakers adjust to the higher demands of diligence projects, more are seeking support from advisors. Only 49% consulted advisors in the past year, but 74% say they will use advisors in future transactions (Figure 21).

    “In future deals, we will continue to rely on the advice of consultants. They have expertise about local market cultures, deal feasibility, and risk management ideas that are all helpful,” a US vice president of corporate strategy and development said.

    Dealmakers are also moving to harness technology to improve the efficiency of the due diligence process. Data rooms (89%) and video/teleconferencing (87%) will be the top used resources.

    Figure 19. How difficult is it to complete due diligence in the current environment compared to 12 months ago?

    Figure 20. Have you added additional resources to assist with due diligence in the past 12 months?

    Figure 21. Which of the following did you use as part of your due diligence efforts within the past year? Which will you continue to use in the future? (Select all that apply for each column)

    Focus: ESG

    ESG is now a central issue in M&A, as deal parties respond to investor and customer demand to put best ESG practice into place. “The ability to attract finance is dependent on the sustainability potential of companies. Financiers who have high expectations in this regard do not approve funds unless the target’s ESG performance is positive,” a US managing director said. Almost half (45%) say ESG considerations arise in every deal they’ve done within the past year, and another 32% say it factors into most deals (Figure 22). Only 11% say it’s not an issue.
    When it comes to ESG, dealmakers seem to have stiffened their spines and are accepting the role of ESG in deals. Although three out of four dealmakers say ESG features in all or most deals, it no longer ranks on top of the list of risks to dealmaking. This suggests sophisticated private equity and M&A teams have learned to anticipate regulation risk, have become better at ESG due diligence and are confident they can manage this area of exposure.

    Andrés Magna

    Partner, Baker Tilly Chile

    Figure 22. How often have ESG considerations factored into the dealmaking process regarding your M&A/investments within the past year?

    Indeed, ESG has become so prominent that gaps in ESG compliance and performance can prove to be a deal-breaker. More than half (53%) say they had to turn down an investment due to ESG concerns (Figure 23). “We turned down an opportunity to invest in a company because it was not consistent in implementing ESG plans. The ESG strategy itself was very weak and impractical. Even further dedication from our teams would not have worked,” the chief financial officer of a French company said.

    ESG due diligence challenges

    Even though respondents signal that ESG is a priority, there are still numerous challenges encountered in the ESG due diligence process. Confusion and a lack of clarity around the standards and benchmarks used to measure ESG performance is a recurring theme, with dealmakers having to navigate myriad standards and kitemarks that are difficult to compare and vary from region to region (Figure 24).

    Figure 23. Within the past 12 months, have you had to turn down an investment due to ESG concerns?

    “When we cannot obtain the required information on time, we cannot proceed with reviewing the information. All the further due diligence procedures are delayed, and decision-making is uncertain,” a Canadian director of M&A said.

    Integrating information with financial data is also an area that has proven challenging.

    “It was a significant challenge trying to integrate information with financial data. There were several specifics missing in the ESG information. ESG risks could not be identified fully,” a vice president of M&A at a US company said.

    Figure 24. What was the most significant challenge you faced when conducting ESG due diligence in your most recent deal?